A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
